Location: London, United Kingdom

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Local Elections 2007

In 2001 the Observer had an article that reported a demographer (who I guess was David Coleman of Oxford University) as saying that on current trends for immigration, emigration and birthrate, 'whites' would be a minority in Britain by 2100. He obviously won't have been able to take the million-odd Poles who have come over since EU enlargement, and I’m not sure talking of ‘whites’ is helpful either. The term ‘Native Britons’ might be more appropriate, as it distinguishes the indigenous people from any Albanians, Poles, Frenchmen and other Eastern Europeans.

Since then immigration has increased dramatically, and emigration of natives likewise. Brits are leaving these islands at a rate not seen for over 100 years. More than half the babies born in London and 20% of those born in England have mothers who were themselves born overseas.

The latest forecast is that "on present trends, by 2073, the majority population of this country will either have migrated here, or be the child or grandchild of parents who did so. No past wave of immigration has ever come anywhere near having that kind of consequence."

There are two important points here. First, it may be that the demographers and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) people are in fact just making up the stats. What is most regretable is that nobody to the left of the BNP seems to want to talk about them. The absence of any attempt at rebuttal is in itself significant.

The second is that apparently this change is not worthy of any debate or meaningful discussion. The Observer said that "It would be the first time in history that a major indigenous population has voluntarily become a minority, rather than through war, famine or disease."

Most people in this country (and particularly those politically left-leaning) are instinctively sympathetic to an indigenous people who find their land occupied by strangers. We 'love' Native Americans, the native Irish, Aborigines, Palestinians, Zimbabweans and the Indians of South America. All these peoples may well have ended up belonging to much 'richer' nations as a result of immigration, but that's not the point. What is so very wrong with the English, that they, uniquely among the nations and races of the earth, are apparently expected to acquiesce in their own replacement. Most people probably don't spend their free time studying these statistics, but they do notice the changes in their area, or when they visit another city. They are aware of the issue. The problem is that those who are concerned about immigration, and who feel that social cohesion demands an immediate stop to immigration and, more importantly, multiculturalism have an extremely limited voting choice. None of the three major parties have the slightest intention of halting mass immigration or multiculturalism, because to do so would not only be 'racist', but would also stop the supply of a new under-class that a generation of indigenous middle, lower-middle and lower classes need to stand on (two holidays a year, two cars and £10,000 outstanding on credit cards don't pay for themselves).

The native British, however, are a down-in-the-mouth bunch, and have generally reacted to immigration by voting with their feet. But as the incomer population grows, the British (and English in particular) are finding that there’s nowhere (emigration apart) to run to. This may be why the BNP's vote of nearly 5% in the 2004 Euro elections was around four times their 1999 vote. We will find out on May 4th, but this trend may not continue - as children of all cultures grow up together they may unite and reject communal politics. However Bradford, Oldham and Burnley aren’t terribly hopeful pointers. It seems that as the 'native' British population declines, and natives become the minority in more and more areas, politics will almost inevitably become split on ethnic lines. The demographics are still pointing all one way, the Tories are unlikely to to make major changes if and when they do ever win power. So in 20 years or so there'll be a nativist British party, representing a substantial proportion, if not a majority, of the native English. The only question is what the name of that party will be. At the moment, for good or ill, the only party that seems to many natives to be for 'people like us' is the BNP. The BNP may have many idiotic ideas. They may also have some very nasty ones at the heart of their ideology and among their senior people although there is little evidence right now to point to this, and after all parties do change (cf. New Labour). But that isn't why people are voting for them.
The English don't do fascism. They just don't want to be a minority in their own country.
By the way, the picture is of St George's Day 'celebrations' in Manchester this year - so very English.


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